Fewer All Cash Sales for Single Family Homes

Are cash sales in SF on the rise, on the decrease, or holding steady?

While we were out on tour last week, this discussion item popped up based on some observations at a recent sales meeting:

Which led us to do some digging in the MLS (but not that kind of digging) to see what the stats would say about cash sales over the past several months here in San Francisco. Last week over at SF Modern Condos, we wrote about how cash is holding steady in the SF condo market.

SF single family homes - All Cash sales in late 2013 and early 2014
SF single family homes – All Cash sales in late 2013 and early 2014

As you can see below, after spiking at close to 30% of the market earlier this year, the number of all cash deals does seem to be down more for single family homes when compared to condo sales.

Percentage of all cash sales - Single family homes
What percentage of sales for single family homes in SF are being bought in all cash purchases?

While there could be (and probably are) a variety of explanations for this phenomena, one of the things I’m curious about is if overseas buyers actually have a preference for condo buildings? While this flies in the face of the “conventional thinking” that says single family homes are a more valuable property type than condos, it makes sense if you think about it: If you aren’t going to be living in the residence on a daily basis, it is preferable to have a home in a building where there are people around to keep an eye on it for you.

Another possibility has to do with location – since single families aren’t really built in SF anymore, will people go for location preference over property type preference?

We’d love to hear your comments below, on twitter, or on our Facebook page (give us a like if you haven’t already!).

Noe Valley Condo or Noe Valley Single Family Home?

Our San Francisco Real Estate Report is a statistical extravaganza – and also really useful! But don’t just take our word for it – here’s an example of the types of questions it can answer. Noe Valley in District 5 has been one of San Francisco’s hottest neighborhoods for quite a while. It’s excellent weather and easy access to the peninsula for Silicon Valley commuters has made it a destination neighborhood

Median Sales Price for Noe Valley condos
Median Sales Price for Noe Valley condos, 2009 to 2013

The chart to the left shows the median sale price for condo homes in Noe Valley over the past five years. Data is from the SFAR MLS, and we do not include tenancy-in-common properties in the condo category.

In 2009, the median sale price for a condo in Noe Valley was $765,000. The price has gone up for each of the past five years, and in 2013 the median sale price for a condo broke the $1,000,000 mark, with the median sale price being $1,002,000.

The average Noe Valley condo has appreciated 5.55% a year for each of the past five years.

Median Sale Price for Noe Valley Single Family Home
Median Sale Price for Noe Valley Single Family Home, 2009 – 2013

 

 

The chart to the right shows the median sale price for single family homes in Noe Valley over the past five years.

As you can see, in 2009 the median sale price was $1,117,500 and in 2013 that value had dramatically appreciated to $1,700,000.

If you calculate out the annual appreciation rate, it comes out to almost 9% – 8.75% – for each of the past five years!

Single Family homes have appreciated an average of 9% per year for each of the past five years.

 

 

Noe Valley property values have been on the rise, and both condos and single family homes have done incredibly well. What are your thoughts about property values in Noe Valley, or any other part of San Francisco? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

 

How’s the market in St. Francis Wood?

St. Francis Wood is a part of District 4, and is known for its large lots and elegant, stately homes. One local survey (not us) named it the most kid-friendly neighborhood in San Francisco. It is perhaps the most elegant example in San Francisco of the “Residential Park” neighborhood concept that gained favor in the early 20th century. All of the information in this blog post can be found in our San Francisco Residential Real Estate Report, a free download with statistics on every SF neighborhood.

Days on Market in St. Francis Wood

St. Francis Wood Days on Market
Days on Market – 2009 to 2013

As you can see, the luxury market has made a dramatic recovery since 2009. In this particular neighborhood, days on market has dropped from 72 days in 2009 to 21 days in 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales in St. Francis Wood

Home sales in St. Francis Wood
Home sales in St. Francis Wood

What makes the decrease in days on market so remarkable is that the average time a property was on the market decreased at the same time as the number of sales increased. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with demand. Sales were abnormally low at 13 homes selling in 2009, while 25 exchanged hands in 2013 – a number much more in line with the prior three years when 22, 19, and 23 homes were sold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median Sale Price and Price per Square Foot in St. Francis Wood

Median Sale Price St. Francis Wood
Median Sale Price in St. Francis Wood

Both median sale price and price per square foot tell the same story – values have been rising in St. Francis wood over the past five years. Homes in 2013 sold for – on average – $250,000 more than they did in 2009.

 

 

 

 

Median Price per Square Foot - St. Francis Wood
Median Price per Square Foot – St. Francis Wood

 

When we look at Median price per Square Foot, the low was (again) in 2009, with a noticeable jump in 2010 (most likely we had some smaller homes changing hands in the neighborhood, which skewed this number higher in 2010). While the 2013 value of $776/sq.ft. isn’t as high as the value in 2010, it has shown a strong upward trend for the last three years.

 

 

 

 

 

Are homes in St. Francis Wood selling over or under asking?

Are homes in St. Francis Wood selling over or under asking price?
St. Francis Wood homes – final median sales price compared to median list price

From 2009 to 2011, homes in St. Francis Wood – on average – sold for less than their asking price. 2010 was the year in which homes went the most under the asking price, at almost 6%. That trend has been reversed for the past two years, with homes selling barely above the asking price in 2012 and homes selling for about 8% over asking in 2013.

 

 

 

What are your questions about the St. Francis Wood neighborhood? We’d love to hear them in the comments below.

 

Single Family Homes in San Francisco Appreciated 20% in 2013

2013 was a good year to be a single family home in San Francisco – or, at least, the seller of a single family home in San Francisco!

The top line data is below, and in the coming days and weeks you can expect us to drill much deeper into the data. But here are some highlights:

  • Sales of single family homes were essentially unchanged, with 2,618 sales being reported through the SFAR MLS in 2013, compared to 2,633 in 2012. Inventory was essentially unchanged, but the number of buyers in the market was up dramatically, which leads to…
  • The median list price in 2013 was $829,000 and the median sales price was $915,000.
  • The average (mean) list price in 2013 was $1,211,642 and the average (mean) sales price was $1,295,601.
  • Depending on if you think the median average or the mean average does a better job of representing home sales, the typical single family home sold for between 7 and 10% over asking in 2013.
2012 and 2013 Single Family Home Sales in San Francisco
2012 and 2013 Single Family Home Sales in San Francisco

If we look at year over year trends, the high level data says that:

  • Median sales price was up from $760,000 to $915,000 – a year over year increase of 20%.
  • Average (mean) sales price was up from $1,103,974 to $1,295,601, a year over year increase of 17%.
  • The typical single family home in San Francisco appreciated in value between 17% and 20%, depending on how you like to measure things.

For those who have been following the market, none of these numbers should come as much of a surprise. 2013 was an incredibly strong year for San Francisco real estate, and all signs seem to point to more of the same (although, with interest rates slowly rising and the Fed finally tapering, the general expectation is for the market to remain strong but not unsustainably so).

As usual, all of our data is from the SFAR MLS, using data for single family homes in MLS districts 1 – 10 (San Francisco proper). What are your thoughts?

 

Bernal Heights, Call the Fire Department

Bernal Heights, call the fire department! Your neighborhood appears to be one of San Francisco’s “hottest” neighborhoods for single family homes in 2013. This post is part of a continuing series that looks at 2013 single family home sales, and includes the The Number One Overbid for a Single Family in 2013 as well as 3 out of 4 homes sold for over asking in 2013.

I took all of the sales data for single family homes in San Francisco that were reported in the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service. I then calculated the percentage over asking the house sold for based on the original list price (not the most recent list price, in case  there was a reduction along the way). The sales are all plotted below:

  • Blue dots represent homes that sold at or near the asking price
  • Orange dots represent homes that sold over the asking price by 15%
  • Red dots represent homes that sold over the asking price by 30% or more

2013 single family home sales prices

You can click on the image above to go to the source map that I created on openheatmap.com.

One Very Important Reminder:

  • This data is for single family homes only! If you are looking at the north-east corner of San Francisco and wondering where the sales are, most of the homes in that area of town are condo/co-op/or tenancies in common. This data will be shared in another heat map to follow in the next few days.

I don’t know what stands out to you, but I’d say Bernal Heights seems to be the neighborhood that most consistently went over the asking price. The blue dots in other neighborhoods don’t mean that the overbids weren’t happening there – it just means that the overbids were a lot closer to the asking price. I may post another version that is slightly more granular – say in the 0% (at), 5%, and 10% over asking ranges.

What stands out to you about the data? Are you surprised to see so many red dots at the south end of the city? Were you expecting more (or less) in any particular neighborhood or area? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

3 Out of 4 Homes Sell for Over Asking in San Francisco

Earlier in the week we took a look at what the largest overbids for single family homes in San Francisco were in 2013. While the numbers provide some interesting perspective, I also wanted to take a look at how common overbids have been in the 2013 SF real estate market. While most buyers are unlikely to find themselves in the position of making the largest overbid, I think their frequency can shed some light on the SF real estate market and how listing agents price properties.

San Francisco 2013 overbids for single family homes
3 out of 4 single family homes in San Francisco sold for over the asking price in 2013.

As you can see from the pie chart above, 3 out of 4 homes in San Francisco that have sold this year went over asking. Of the remaining 25% of homes that sold, just shy of 5% went for the asking price, almost 10% went for under asking by 0 – 5% of the purchase price, about 7% went for under asking by between 5 and 10% and just shy of 5% went for more than 10% under asking.

As you can see from the graph, the reality is that home buyers who have been shopping in San Francisco this past year have encountered at least one home they were interested in being in a multiple offer/over asking situation.

I’m going to dig down into the over-asking numbers in a future post to get a handle on just how far over asking most homes went, because there is certainly a psychological difference between offering $50,000 over the asking price and offering more than $1,000,000 over the asking price. In a perfect world, I’d also be able to slice and dice this data by neighborhood, but unless I get an intern for the holidays, that’s probably more number crunching than is realistic.

Finally, a note about our data. All data is from the San Francisco Association of Realtors multiple listing service. Many new construction developments are not entered either at all or completely in the MLS, however most new construction in San Francisco is for condos, so this data is pretty representative of the single family home market. The data only looks at homes located in San Francisco, so homes outside of SF that were entered in the SFAR MLS are not included in the data.