Noe Valley Condo or Noe Valley Single Family Home?

Our San Francisco Real Estate Report is a statistical extravaganza – and also really useful! But don’t just take our word for it – here’s an example of the types of questions it can answer. Noe Valley in District 5 has been one of San Francisco’s hottest neighborhoods for quite a while. It’s excellent weather and easy access to the peninsula for Silicon Valley commuters has made it a destination neighborhood

Median Sales Price for Noe Valley condos

Median Sales Price for Noe Valley condos, 2009 to 2013

The chart to the left shows the median sale price for condo homes in Noe Valley over the past five years. Data is from the SFAR MLS, and we do not include tenancy-in-common properties in the condo category.

In 2009, the median sale price for a condo in Noe Valley was $765,000. The price has gone up for each of the past five years, and in 2013 the median sale price for a condo broke the $1,000,000 mark, with the median sale price being $1,002,000.

The average Noe Valley condo has appreciated 5.55% a year for each of the past five years.

Median Sale Price for Noe Valley Single Family Home

Median Sale Price for Noe Valley Single Family Home, 2009 – 2013

 

 

The chart to the right shows the median sale price for single family homes in Noe Valley over the past five years.

As you can see, in 2009 the median sale price was $1,117,500 and in 2013 that value had dramatically appreciated to $1,700,000.

If you calculate out the annual appreciation rate, it comes out to almost 9% – 8.75% – for each of the past five years!

Single Family homes have appreciated an average of 9% per year for each of the past five years.

 

 

Noe Valley property values have been on the rise, and both condos and single family homes have done incredibly well. What are your thoughts about property values in Noe Valley, or any other part of San Francisco? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

 

How’s the market in St. Francis Wood?

St. Francis Wood is a part of District 4, and is known for its large lots and elegant, stately homes. One local survey (not us) named it the most kid-friendly neighborhood in San Francisco. It is perhaps the most elegant example in San Francisco of the “Residential Park” neighborhood concept that gained favor in the early 20th century. All of the information in this blog post can be found in our San Francisco Residential Real Estate Report, a free download with statistics on every SF neighborhood.

Days on Market in St. Francis Wood

St. Francis Wood Days on Market

Days on Market – 2009 to 2013

As you can see, the luxury market has made a dramatic recovery since 2009. In this particular neighborhood, days on market has dropped from 72 days in 2009 to 21 days in 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales in St. Francis Wood

Home sales in St. Francis Wood

Home sales in St. Francis Wood

What makes the decrease in days on market so remarkable is that the average time a property was on the market decreased at the same time as the number of sales increased. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with demand. Sales were abnormally low at 13 homes selling in 2009, while 25 exchanged hands in 2013 – a number much more in line with the prior three years when 22, 19, and 23 homes were sold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median Sale Price and Price per Square Foot in St. Francis Wood

Median Sale Price St. Francis Wood

Median Sale Price in St. Francis Wood

Both median sale price and price per square foot tell the same story – values have been rising in St. Francis wood over the past five years. Homes in 2013 sold for – on average – $250,000 more than they did in 2009.

 

 

 

 

Median Price per Square Foot - St. Francis Wood

Median Price per Square Foot – St. Francis Wood

 

When we look at Median price per Square Foot, the low was (again) in 2009, with a noticeable jump in 2010 (most likely we had some smaller homes changing hands in the neighborhood, which skewed this number higher in 2010). While the 2013 value of $776/sq.ft. isn’t as high as the value in 2010, it has shown a strong upward trend for the last three years.

 

 

 

 

 

Are homes in St. Francis Wood selling over or under asking?

Are homes in St. Francis Wood selling over or under asking price?

St. Francis Wood homes – final median sales price compared to median list price

From 2009 to 2011, homes in St. Francis Wood – on average – sold for less than their asking price. 2010 was the year in which homes went the most under the asking price, at almost 6%. That trend has been reversed for the past two years, with homes selling barely above the asking price in 2012 and homes selling for about 8% over asking in 2013.

 

 

 

What are your questions about the St. Francis Wood neighborhood? We’d love to hear them in the comments below.

 

Single Family Homes in San Francisco Appreciated 20% in 2013

2013 was a good year to be a single family home in San Francisco – or, at least, the seller of a single family home in San Francisco!

The top line data is below, and in the coming days and weeks you can expect us to drill much deeper into the data. But here are some highlights:

  • Sales of single family homes were essentially unchanged, with 2,618 sales being reported through the SFAR MLS in 2013, compared to 2,633 in 2012. Inventory was essentially unchanged, but the number of buyers in the market was up dramatically, which leads to…
  • The median list price in 2013 was $829,000 and the median sales price was $915,000.
  • The average (mean) list price in 2013 was $1,211,642 and the average (mean) sales price was $1,295,601.
  • Depending on if you think the median average or the mean average does a better job of representing home sales, the typical single family home sold for between 7 and 10% over asking in 2013.
2012 and 2013 Single Family Home Sales in San Francisco

2012 and 2013 Single Family Home Sales in San Francisco

If we look at year over year trends, the high level data says that:

  • Median sales price was up from $760,000 to $915,000 – a year over year increase of 20%.
  • Average (mean) sales price was up from $1,103,974 to $1,295,601, a year over year increase of 17%.
  • The typical single family home in San Francisco appreciated in value between 17% and 20%, depending on how you like to measure things.

For those who have been following the market, none of these numbers should come as much of a surprise. 2013 was an incredibly strong year for San Francisco real estate, and all signs seem to point to more of the same (although, with interest rates slowly rising and the Fed finally tapering, the general expectation is for the market to remain strong but not unsustainably so).

As usual, all of our data is from the SFAR MLS, using data for single family homes in MLS districts 1 – 10 (San Francisco proper). What are your thoughts?

 

Bernal Heights, Call the Fire Department

Bernal Heights, call the fire department! Your neighborhood appears to be one of San Francisco’s “hottest” neighborhoods for single family homes in 2013. This post is part of a continuing series that looks at 2013 single family home sales, and includes the The Number One Overbid for a Single Family in 2013 as well as 3 out of 4 homes sold for over asking in 2013.

I took all of the sales data for single family homes in San Francisco that were reported in the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service. I then calculated the percentage over asking the house sold for based on the original list price (not the most recent list price, in case  there was a reduction along the way). The sales are all plotted below:

  • Blue dots represent homes that sold at or near the asking price
  • Orange dots represent homes that sold over the asking price by 15%
  • Red dots represent homes that sold over the asking price by 30% or more

2013 single family home sales prices

You can click on the image above to go to the source map that I created on openheatmap.com.

One Very Important Reminder:

  • This data is for single family homes only! If you are looking at the north-east corner of San Francisco and wondering where the sales are, most of the homes in that area of town are condo/co-op/or tenancies in common. This data will be shared in another heat map to follow in the next few days.

I don’t know what stands out to you, but I’d say Bernal Heights seems to be the neighborhood that most consistently went over the asking price. The blue dots in other neighborhoods don’t mean that the overbids weren’t happening there – it just means that the overbids were a lot closer to the asking price. I may post another version that is slightly more granular – say in the 0% (at), 5%, and 10% over asking ranges.

What stands out to you about the data? Are you surprised to see so many red dots at the south end of the city? Were you expecting more (or less) in any particular neighborhood or area? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

3 Out of 4 Homes Sell for Over Asking in San Francisco

Earlier in the week we took a look at what the largest overbids for single family homes in San Francisco were in 2013. While the numbers provide some interesting perspective, I also wanted to take a look at how common overbids have been in the 2013 SF real estate market. While most buyers are unlikely to find themselves in the position of making the largest overbid, I think their frequency can shed some light on the SF real estate market and how listing agents price properties.

San Francisco 2013 overbids for single family homes

3 out of 4 single family homes in San Francisco sold for over the asking price in 2013.

As you can see from the pie chart above, 3 out of 4 homes in San Francisco that have sold this year went over asking. Of the remaining 25% of homes that sold, just shy of 5% went for the asking price, almost 10% went for under asking by 0 – 5% of the purchase price, about 7% went for under asking by between 5 and 10% and just shy of 5% went for more than 10% under asking.

As you can see from the graph, the reality is that home buyers who have been shopping in San Francisco this past year have encountered at least one home they were interested in being in a multiple offer/over asking situation.

I’m going to dig down into the over-asking numbers in a future post to get a handle on just how far over asking most homes went, because there is certainly a psychological difference between offering $50,000 over the asking price and offering more than $1,000,000 over the asking price. In a perfect world, I’d also be able to slice and dice this data by neighborhood, but unless I get an intern for the holidays, that’s probably more number crunching than is realistic.

Finally, a note about our data. All data is from the San Francisco Association of Realtors multiple listing service. Many new construction developments are not entered either at all or completely in the MLS, however most new construction in San Francisco is for condos, so this data is pretty representative of the single family home market. The data only looks at homes located in San Francisco, so homes outside of SF that were entered in the SFAR MLS are not included in the data.

The Number One Overbid of 2013

Would you pay $1,355,000 over the asking price for a home in San Francisco?

Would you pay 292% of the asking price for a home in SF?

Over the past year, overbids have returned to the San Francisco market, and in absolute dollar terms, the largest overbid was for a single family home in Pacific Heights (Lyon at Pacific). The home has 6 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms, and sits on a large lot that has both views and is level enough for a basketball court. The home was also designed by a noted architect. It listed in the fall of this year for just shy of $3,900,000 and sold for $5,250,000. It sold for $1,355,000 more than the list price, which earns it the distinction of the 2013 sale with the highest overbid in absolute dollars.

This Pacific Heights home sold for $1,355,000 over the list price.

Another way to calculate the overbid is based on percentages. If we slice and dice the data to compare list price to sales price, the home in Pacific Heights is out-bid by a home in the Bayview that sold for 292% of the list price. Located on a charming street in the Bayview (yes, there really is such a thing, thank you very much), this winner listed for $189,000 early this year and sold for $551,700, which means is sold for almost triple it’s original list price!

This Bayview home sold for 292% of its asking price.

So there you have it – the homes in San Francisco with the two highest overbids in 2013. One in Pacific Heights, the other in the Bayview, two neighborhoods that rarely are mentioned for having something in common.  Although, since it is only December 9 we still have a few more weeks to see if any other monster sales come close to competing with these two homes.

I’d love to hear your thoughts about these two SF homes and the market in the comments below.

October Market Stats: Up!

How did the San Francisco real estate market do in October? Well, let’s just say that our weather wasn’t the only warm thing this past month. As you can see below with the narrative and statistics provided by the San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR), the market continues to be very strong, with low inventory and low interest rates continuing to drive demand.

Now that the baton is in grasp of the final quarter of our annual relay, it’s a good time to look back and reflect. This year has been spectacular for residential real estate. Robust gains in sales and prices were felt throughout San Francisco’s 10 Residential Districts, with median single family home prices cresting the $1 million mark in both April and May. Homes have also been selling at a fast clip, with an average of 37 days on the market.
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While consumers have felt empowered by lower interest rates, sellers are starting to regain their footing. Seller confidence is crucial to refill inventory bins, which are still relatively sparse.

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New Listings were down 7.7 percent for single family homes but increased 0.3 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Pending Sales decreased 13.6 percent for single family homes but increased 20.9 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. The Median Sales Price was up 11.1 percent to $921,945 for single family homes and 13.8 percent to $865,000 for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.0 percent for single family units and 25.0 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop units.

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The economy continues to snail forward. The government shutdown had a modest impact on borrowing – mostly centered on USDA and VA borrowers. Consumer confidence is central to ongoing recovery, and confidence was hindered by the shutdown. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic activity and impacts the likelihood for big-ticket purchases like homes and cars. Future shutdowns are unwelcome.

We’d love to hear your thoughts and experiences with the market below

Is the Market Shifting?

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The San Francisco real estate market shifts on a dime. Or, to channel Heidi Klum, one day your hot and the next day you’re out.

Are things coming up roses in San Francisco?

Are things coming up roses in San Francisco?

All of which isn’t to say that the market has imploded like it did in late 2008/early 2009. But for the first time in months, I got an email from an agent with a property that didn’t receive any offers on the offer date and is now taking the offers as they come.

Before you get your hopes us as a buyer that suddenly you can start submitting offers below asking that will be accepted, there are still plenty of homes with offer dates that are getting numerous offers and going well over the asking price. In fact, I can think of a home in the Corona Heights neighborhood that went for almost $400,000 over the list price just a few days ago.

What does it mean for you as a buyer, or for you as a seller?

If you are a seller, it means correctly pricing your property is critical. Your list price needs to be realistic and grounded in comps, and preferably towards the low end of the supported value range. Price it at the high side and you’ll most likely scare off buyers who are already mentally adding a chunk of cash to your asking price…

If you are a buyer, it means that you and your agent really need to do your due diligence to determine how much interest a property actually has, and how many offers are likely to materialize. You also need to do one solid dive into comparable sales, so you can understand both what values the market is supporting and what numbers the seller and listing agent most likely have in their head.

Opportunities are out there, and as we move towards a more “balanced” market, it can create some awesome opportunities for savvy buyers!

July 2013 Home Sales

August has arrived, and SF’s typical real estate cycle sees a slow down in business during July and August because of Karl the Fog.

July 2013 Single Family Home Stats

July 2013 Single Family Home Stats

So, how did things stack up for single family home sales during the month of July?

This past month saw 251 homes close escrow during the month. That’s down from the 268 homes that closed escrow during June of 2013 and up from the 217 homes that closed escrow during July of 2012.

July 2013 San Francisco Market Stats:

Days on Market = 23 days in July, which is down 2 days from the 25 day average of June, and down 6 days from the 29 day average of July 2012.

Median List Price = $799,000, which is up $50,000 from the $749,000 in was in June. It also brings us right back to the median list price in May of 2013, when the median list price was also $799,000. The median list price for July of 2012 was $725,000.

Median Sales Price = $880,000, up $40,000 from  $840,000 for June. While it is up over June, it is still underneath the $910,000 median sales price from May of 2013.  The median sales price for July of 2012 it was $768,000.

Median Price per Square Foot = $634/square foot in July. Which is up from the $596/Square Foot in June but still down from the May measurement of $650/Sq.Ft. The July 2012 metric for median price per square foot was $566/Sq.Ft.

Disclaimer: All of these statistics are from the San Francisco MLS. The data is believed to be reliable and accurate, but is not warranted. Your mileage may vary. For the statistics in this post, we are only looking at single family homes in Districts 1 – 10 of San Francisco. Condos/Coops/TICs/Lofts will be covered in separate posts.

What are your thoughts about the San Francisco real estate market? Does it feel to you like it’s cooling a bit thanks to higher interest rates and plenty of fog? Or are are you feeling that things are just as hot as they were in April or May? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments section below.

June Sales Activity

How’s the Market? It’s no secret that the San Francisco market is strong (and that the national market is as well).

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June 2013 San Francisco Market Stats:

All of these statistics are from the San Francisco MLS. The data is believed to be reliable and accurate, but is not warranted. Your mileage may vary. For the statistics in this post, we are only looking at single family homes. Condos/Coops/TICs/Lofts will be covered in separate posts.

Days on Market = 25 days in June.  This is up 14% month-to-month from May of 2013, when the number was 22, but still down by 26% from June of 2012, when it was 34 days on market.

Median List Price = $749,000 in June. This is down by 6% month-over-month from May, when the median list price was $799,000. The median list is still up by 9% from June of 2012, when it was $688,000.

Median Sales Price = $840,000 in June. This is down 8% month-over-month from May, when the median sales price was $910,000. The median sales price is still up year over year by 19%, in June of 2012 it was $705,000.

Median Price per Square Foot = $596/Square Foot in June. This is down about 8% month-over-month from May, when it was $650/Sq.Ft. It is up about 23% year-over-year, with the June 2012 metric coming in at $486/Sq.Ft.

All signs point to a continued strong and healthy market, although things seem to be cooling off a little bet from the intensely hot Spring. Interest rates have increased a remarkable amount over the past few weeks, which may bring some continued cooling to the market. However, given how much cash is in the San Francisco market, it may make little difference since cash buyers are not impacted by an increase in interest rates. However, given that they may be bidding against people who are more sensitive to interest rate changes, it may impact the market overall.

What are your thoughts about the current market? I’d love to hear them in the comments below!